Signal

Good morning. The war with Iran is hitting Britain harder than anyone expected, with the OECD warning that the UK faces the biggest growth hit among major economies due to our heavy reliance on energy imports. Oil price swings are already creating a messy feedback loop where Trump appears to be making abrupt policy pivots based on crude prices, while energy executives who initially benefited from his deregulation are now worried about the unpredictability. The broader concern is that we're sliding back into 1970s-style stagflation, where war-driven inflation combines with stagnant growth to create a perfect storm for governments already struggling with popularity. Closer to home, more than 13 million people are now living in poverty according to new figures, while savers are still waiting for millions of pounds after another NS&I mess-up that's cost the boss their job. The IOC has decided that Olympic women's sports will be limited to biological females from 2028, which will likely reignite the transgender athlete debate. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer's allies are making the case for keeping him around a bit longer, arguing that panic-buying a slightly less unpopular replacement won't solve Labour's fundamental challenges.