Signal

Good afternoon. The big story today is that the US and Iran have agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefire that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump claiming both sides have found "workable" terms for broader negotiations. Oil prices have plummeted 15% on the news, though Iran is demanding cryptocurrency fees for ships passing through Hormuz during the truce. The deal appears to give Trump a face-saving exit from a conflict that was escalating dangerously, but analysts warn it comes at a high diplomatic cost and may fundamentally alter how allies view American reliability. Meanwhile, Israel has already tested the ceasefire's limits by striking southern Lebanon just hours after the announcement, highlighting how fragile this arrangement really is. There's growing speculation that Israel may have overestimated the damage from its recent attacks on Iran's missile capabilities, which could explain the sudden diplomatic pivot. The whole episode is being compared to Nixon's failed "Madman Theory" - the idea that unpredictable behavior creates negotiating leverage - though early market reactions suggest investors are just relieved to step back from the brink of a wider regional war.