Signal

Good morning. Oil markets are getting jittery as Trump escalates threats against Iran, with Brent crude climbing above $110 a barrel after the president vowed to target the country's infrastructure unless it reopens key shipping lanes. This latest development in the six-week conflict is testing even his MAGA base's patience, though support remains solid in small-town Georgia while swing voters are growing increasingly uncomfortable with the war's trajectory. What's particularly concerning is that policymakers have few tools left to cushion the economic blow from this oil shock, unlike previous crises where governments had more ammunition to deploy. On a brighter note, families are finally getting some financial relief as the controversial two-child benefit cap officially ends today, putting an average of £4,100 back in households' pockets annually. Northern Ireland is also making history by becoming the first part of the UK to guarantee paid miscarriage leave at any stage of pregnancy, a move that advocates say recognizes the real grief and recovery time parents need. Meanwhile, the Artemis II crew is preparing for their lunar flyby, including that eerie 40-minute communication blackout when they pass behind the Moon – the first time humans will experience that isolation since the Apollo era ended over fifty years ago.